The ACC hoops season has not gone exactly as I expected. The league is much more top heavy than I predicted -- instead of 8 or 9 teams dancing, the ACC will get 6 at the most. I did not expect there to be any cupcakes in the league, but Virginia Tech and Boston College have been getting pushed around by everyone.
The pleasant suprises are UVA (I picked them 3rd but did not expect a 10-1 start) and Clemson (6-4, I picked them 14th) while Georgia Tech and Notre Dame have been disappointing.
Here are the current league standings (compared to where I picked them preseason):
1) Syracuse (2)
2) UVA (3)
3) Duke (1)
4) Pitt (6)
5) UNC (4)
6) Clemson (14)
7) Maryland (7)
8) NC State (11)
9) Florida State (10)
10) Wake Forest (12)
11) Georgia Tech (8)
12) Notre Dame (5)
13) Miami (13)
14) Boston College (9)
15) Virginia Tech (15)
1) Syracuse: The Orange are 10-0 in the league and 23-0 overall. As expected, C.J. Fair leads the team in scoring, but you could make a strong argument that freshman point guard Tyler Ennis is the most valuable player on the squad. He leads the league in assists and rarely turns the ball over. I expect the Cuse to lose at least one conference game (still have away games at Duke, UVA, Pitt, and Maryland), but they should land the #1 seed in the East Regional -- which means they won't have to leave the state of New York until the Final Four.
2) UVA: I predicted that this year's team would be UVA's best in 20 years. After a 9-4 start and a 35-point beatdown at Tennessee, that seemed like a foolish prediction. 11 games (and 10 wins) later, I stand by the statement. No one in the nation plays better team defense than UVA. The offensive production is by committee, but Malcolm Brogdon always seems to get a bucket when the Hoos really need it. I like that Joe Harris is an unselfish player, but UVA needs him to look to score a little more often. London Perrantes, much like Tyler Ennis, is a freshman point guard who plays well beyond his years and has a calming influence when running the halfcourt offense. I expect UVA to end up with a 5-seed in the NCAA tourney.
3) Duke: Duke is starting to look like a top 10 team. Coach K is giving Andre Dawkins and Rasheed Sulaimon some more minutes, and they have responded well. In my opinion, those two should be getting much more playing time than Tyler Thornton. Amile Jefferson has thrived in a supporting role, and he is Duke's only viable big man. Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood have been as good as advertised. Don't be surprised to see Duke win the ACC tournament and get a 2-seed in the Big Dance.
4) Pitt: Lamar Patterson and James Robinson lead the way for Pitt. The Panthers have been very solid all year long, but some critics have questioned their strength of schedule. Close overtime wins over Miami and Virginia Tech this week have not helped that perception. They are safely in the NCAAs, but the next few weeks will determine if they get as high as a 6 seed or drop as far as a 10 seed.
5) UNC: The Heels have come on strong in the last few weeks, winning five conference games in a row. They get Duke at home on Wednesday so we should find out just how good they are. Without P.J. Hairston, the Heels only have one reliable shooter in Marcus Paige. I expect them to get invited to March Madness, but their stay will be a short one.
6) Clemson: Clemson is UVA with a little less talent. They play tenacious defense and keep their games in the 50s, but they often do not score enough to win. Clemson is 6-4 in the league, but they probably need to finish at least 11-7 in the ACC to get an NCAA bid. Their schedule is manageable enough to do so.
7) Maryland: The Terps are leaving the ACC exactly as I expected them to: as an average, middle of the road team. They have enough talent to make a run and have a shot at March Madness, but I don't expect it to happen.
8) NC State: Sophomore T.J. Warren leads the league in scoring and freshman Cat Barber is exciting to watch, but the Wolfpack has been too inconsistent this season. Assuming they don't lose anyone unexpected to the draft or to transfer, watch out for this team next season.
9) Florida State: FSU is 5-6 in ACC play, yet most bracketologists still have the Noles in the field of 68. I think FSU needs to get to 10 league wins, and I think they will barely get there. I see them as an 11-seed in Madness.
10) Wake Forest: I can't take Wake seriously until they get a new coach. Under Jeff Bzdelik, Wake is 2-28 in ACC road games. The Demon Deacons are composed almost entirely of freshmen and sophomores so a new coach could bring in results immediately next season.
11) Georgia Tech: The Jackets have been bitten (no pun intended) by the injury bug (no pun intended) this season. Robert Carter and Trae Golden must be in the lineup if this team expects to win conference games, and they have missed too many games for Georgia Tech to be successful.
12) Notre Dame: Most of the blame for Notre Dame's woes has to fall on Jerian Grant's dismissal from the team for acaemic reasons. He was one of the five best players in the ACC. However, even without Grant, Notre Dame should still be in the top half of the league. They have been the biggest disappointment in the ACC.
13) Miami: In fairness to the U, they have lost five conference games by 5 points or less. They had Syracuse on the ropes twice. So, even though they are 13th in the league as I had predicted, they are a much better team than I expected. They will play spoiler for one or two teams down the stretch.
14) Boston College: I still like Olivier Hanlan's game, but there is not much else positive to say about BC this season.
15) Virginia Tech: I think Devin Wilson could be a quality point guard for four years in Blacksburg, but I don't think Coach James Johnson will be there to see him graduate.
Midseason 1st Team All-ACC
Jabari Parker, Duke (also Player of the Year & Rookie of the Year)
C.J. Fair, Syracuse
Lamar Patterson, Pitt
Rodney Hood, Duke
T.J. Warren, NC State
2nd Team
Tyler Ennis, Syracuse
Malcolm Brogdon, UVA
Marcus Paige, UNC
Olivier Hanlan, BC
K.J. McDaniels, Clemson
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