Wednesday, November 6, 2013

2013-14 ACC Basketball Predictions



This seems like deja vu, but UVa is on a six-game losing streak in football and college hoops kicks off on Friday so it is again that time of year to turn our attention to basketball season.

With the additions of Syracuse, Notre Dame, and Pitt, the ACC is now without question the best conference in college basketball.  I think the ACC could get as many as 9 teams in the NCAA tournament this season.  There are really only three bad teams in the league this season so 12 squads will be fighting for likely 7-9 March Madness berths.

My predictions for the upcoming ACC season are as follows:

1) Duke - Despite losing Seth Curry, Mason Plumlee, and Ryan Kelly, the Blue Devils are stacked.  For the first time in what seems like decades, Duke does not have any annoying white guys in the rotation (although the third Plumlee brother could potentially fill this role). This is a young, athletic Duke team.  Time will tell if Jabari Parker (freshman) and Rodney Hood (transfer from Mississippi State) are as good as advertised.  Quinn Cook and Rasheed Sulaimon are solid in the backcourt.

2) Syracuse - Every other ACC team is glad that Michael Carter-Williams is playing for the Sixers instead of the Orange this season.  The Cuse still has some weapons, most notably C.J. Fair, and will look to challenge Duke for the ACC title.

3) UVa - At the risk of sounding like a homer, this should be the best UVa squad since 1995.  Seniors Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell lead the way, but there is a lot of depth with Anthony Gill, Mike Tobey, Justin Anderson, Malcolm Brogdan, Evan Nolte, and two freshmen point guards.  Gill (redshirt) and Brogdan (foot injury) both missed last season, and they will need to play significant roles to get the Hoos over the hump.

4) UNC - I think the Heels are slightly overrated in the preseason polls (#12 in AP, #11 in USA Today).  There is still talent on the roster, but the team played a lot of lazy basketball last season.  I'm still waiting for James Michael McAdoo to show us why many consider him a sure-fire lottery pick.  P.J. Hairston should be the Heels' leading scorer, if he can get his life together off the court.  UNC plays Michigan State in its 7th game so I fully expect Hairston's suspension to be for 6 games or less.

5) Notre Dame - I think the Irish are a dark horse to win the league.  Seniors Jerian Grant and Eric Atkins make up one of the best backcourts in the nation.  It will be interesting to see Mike Brey coach against his mentor, Coach K, and Notre Dame - Duke could become a good, new rivalry.

6) Pitt - I would like Pitt's chances of winning the league much more if 7-footer Steven Adams had returned to school rather than declare for the NBA draft.  Pitt has three returning starters, including point guard James Robinson, and should have a good chance to dance in March even if they don't finish in the top 5 of the league.

7) Maryland - Alex Len is gone, but quite frankly, he wasn't that great at Maryland.  The Terps have some talented wings in Dez Wells, Nick Faust, and Jake Layman.  Michigan transfer Evan Smotrycz will provide another scoring option. No one will be too sad to see Maryland leave the ACC after this season, especially with Louisville replacing them next year.

8) Georgia Tech - The Ramblin' Wreck is my sleeper team in the ACC.  Most projections have the Jackets finishing in the bottom 5 of the league, but I think they have a chance to make the NCAAs.  Tennessee transfer Trae Golden is eligible immediately, and returning sophomores Robert Carter, Jr. and Marcus Georges-Hunt will play bigger roles this season.

9) Boston College - Sophomore guard Olivier Hanlan is a star, and Ryan Anderson is one of the league's best post players.  Notre Dame transfer Alex Dragicevich is eligible this year, and the 6'8'' guard should fit in nicely in Steve Donahue's up-tempo offense.  The Eagles will be much improved this season.

10) Florida State - FSU is probably the hardest team in the league for me to get a read on.  Mr. Clutch-- Michael Snaer -- is gone, but there is still some talent in the cupboard.  Okaro White will be their top scorer, and he'll need some help from Ian Miller, Devon Bookert, and 7-footer Kiel Turpin.  Prized recruit Xavier Rathan-Mayes has been ruled academically ineligible, which severely hurts the 'Noles chances of making the Big Dance.

11) NC State - The Wolfpack underachieved last season, and then lost almost all of its starting lineup.  Sophomore T.J. Warren, the only returning starter, is now the leader of the team.  Sophomore Tyler Lewis and blue-chip freshman Anthony "Big Cat" Barber (from Hampton High) are a legitimate 1-2 punch at the point guard position.  This is a young team with a bright future, but this season could be a struggle.

12) Wake Forest - Poor Travis McKie.  The only senior on the Demon Deacons squad has had a great career with very little success to show for it, including three straight losing seasons.  Unfortunately, it will probably be more of the same this season.  This is a sophomore-laden team that will be very competitive, but I think they are still a year away from battling for a March Madness berth.  The NIT is a possibility this season if they overachieve -- but knowing Coach Jeff Bzdelik's track record, I don't expect them to.

13) Miami - Miami had a great run last season, but the Canes lost their top 6 scorers from a year ago.  Rion Brown is the top returner, and he only averaged 6 points a game last season. This season will be a struggle for the U.

14) Clemson - Clemson lost Milton Jennings and Devin Booker from a team that went 13-18 last season.  Things will be worse this season.  K.J. McDaniels will likely be the leading scorer, but will he have any help?

15) Virginia Tech - The Hokies finished last in the league last season, even with Erick Green.  Ouch.  Much like Clemson, things will go from bad to worse in Blacksburg. 

1st Team All-ACC

C.J. Fair - Syracuse
Joe Harris - UVa
Rodney Hood - Duke
Jerian Grant - Notre Dame
Olivier Hanlan - BC

2nd team All-ACC

Jabari Parker, Duke
T.J. Warren, NC State
P.J. Hairston, UNC
Eric Atkins, Notre Dame
Travis McKie, Wake Forest

Player of the year: C.J. Fair, Syracuse

Rookie of the year: Jabari Parker, Duke