Breaking Down ACC Basketball

ACC football had parity this season – ACC basketball does not. Most people would agree that the ACC is the 2^nd-best basketball conference this year (behind the Big East -- which has too many teams), but it is easy to split the teams in the ACC into three categories: 1) Final Four Contenders, 2) Bubble Teams, and 3) and Rebuilding Teams.

FINAL FOUR CONTENDERS

1) NORTH CAROLINA: I still think UNC is the best team in the country. Ty Lawson got outplayed against Boston College and Wake, but he is one of the five best point guards in the nation. I cannot say that I like Tyler Hansbrough, but I respect his game and his heart. Sure, he gets a lot of calls, but most of the calls he gets are a result of his hustle, his physical presence, and his energy. Danny Green has been the most consistent player on their roster this year. It is hard to believe that Wayne Ellington may be their X factor this year – he has been inconsistent but he takes them to another level when he is making shots.

2) WAKE FOREST: Wake is the only undefeated team in the country, so clearly they are a legitimate Final Four contender. In my opinion, they are the second-best team in the ACC this season, but they are capable to beating anyone in the country. Jeff Teague, James Johnson, and Al-Farouq Aminu are all future 1^st round NBA draft picks. Wake has the size and speed to make a deep run in March.

3) DUKE: All biases aside, I can’t put Duke on the same level as UNC and Wake because they are missing an inside presence. Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek do nothing for me. On the other hand, Duke’s guards and small forwards are outstanding. Kyle Singer has NBA size, Gerald Henderson is athletic and much-improved, and Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer are good complements in the backcourt. Greg Paulus is the biggest douche in college basketball, but he is a senior leader off the bench.

4) CLEMSON: I realize that Clemson started off 16-0 two years ago before imploding, but I think this team is different. I have no doubt they will make the NCAA Tournament and likely be seeded between 3 and 6, depending on how they finish ACC play. Clemson has good low post play (Trevor Booker and Raymond Sykes), good shooters (K.C. Rivers and Terrence Ogelsby), and a quick, underrated point guard (Demontez Stitt). Clemson has the tools to beat the above-referenced teams in ACC play and make some noise in March. Clemson has lost 53 straight games in Chapel Hill – they have another chance this Wednesday night. I predict it will be a close loss.

BUBBLE TEAMS

5) FLORIDA STATE: Toney Douglas is one of the best players in the ACC and Chris Singleton is one of the best freshman in the ACC. I like their chances of making the NCAAs (seeded between 7 and 10).

6) MIAMI: Jack McClinton leads a deep Miami team. They blew a huge lead against Ohio State after McClinton was ejected. I like them to sneak into the NCAAs as a 9 or 10 seed.

7) VIRGINIA TECH: The Chokies have lost some close games, and it may keep them out of the Big Dance. As an unbiased, objective college basketball fan, I like their Big Three – Jeff Allen, A.D. Vassallo, and Malcolm Delaney. When all is said and done, I believe they will secure a seventh NCAA bid for the ACC and earn a double-digit seed.

8) MARYLAND: The Terps are actually the only ACC team I haven’t watched play this season. Their roster looks like Greivis Vasquez (talks a lot of smack but is a very good player) and a bunch of underclassman. Their loss to Morgan State could come back to haunt them. They are likely headed to the NIT.

9) BOSTON COLLEGE: I don’t think BC has much chance to make the NCAAs, but I had to put them in this classification because a) they beat UNC and b) Tyrese Rice is a senior so despite the team’s youth it is hard to call this season a rebuilding year. Rice is good enough to single-handedly win conference games for them, but not enough.

REBUILDING TEAMS

10) GEORGIA TECH: The Ramblin’ Wreck is 0-4 in ACC play, but I believe they are better than UVa and N.C. State. Freshman Iman Shumpert and sophomore Gani Lawal are future NBA prospects (possibly as soon as this summer). If they stick around for next year when the Jackets add high school stud Derrick Favors, GT could be looking at an NCAA bid in 2010.

11) VIRGINIA: The Hoos have been competitive (for the most part) this season, but they start three freshmen and a sophomore so it will continue to be a tough season. Sylven Landesberg has been named ACC Freshman of the Week five times, but he disappeared in losses against UNC and Minnesota. He needs to find a consistent jump shot. Meanwhile, Coach Dave Leitao needs to find a consistent substitution pattern.

12) N.C. STATE: Will the real Brandon Costner please stand up? After the Wolfpack’s improbable run in the 2007 ACC Tournament, I thought Brandon Costner would be an All-ACC player in 2008 and potentially even a 2008 NBA lottery pick. Instead, J.J. Hickson came in last season and stole some of Costner’s thunder (and points). Hickson is now in the NBA so it is Costner’s team again. He has the ability to take over games, but he has not shown it enough. The Pack’s point guard struggles have also carried over from last season.